Blog: "COVID-19: How round will the future be?" - Charlie Woods, SUII

Charlie Woods is EDAS's Policy and Practice
sub-group Chair and Director of the
Scottish Universities Insight Institute

A starting point for beginning to reimagine a post Covid economy is to look at the processes that underlie economic activity, such as the supply chains, which encompass consumption, production, financing, distribution and exchange. Globalisation has tended to lead to ever extended chains, relying on ‘just in time’ supply, as companies look to increase efficiency and become more competitive.

The response to the pandemic has severely tested the resilience and effectiveness of some of these chains. As restrictions are lifted and demand begins to pick up it wouldn’t be a surprise to see these processes coming under increased scrutiny[1]. This is likely to focus initially on increasing resilience to future shocks, but it could also be an opportunity to review how current arrangements perform relative to other goals, such as sustainability and wellbeing.

The metaphor of a supply chain implies a linear production process, which can be characterised as ‘take, make and dispose’. Perhaps the future will look much more circular as greater attention is given to reducing non-renewable inputs and reducing the disposal of waste in the natural environment (as illustrated in the diagram below from Zero Waste Scotland[2] in relation to CO2). It has been argued that such an approach offers opportunities to help both planet and profit[3].

The concept of a rounder economy is also at the heart of ‘Doughnut Economics’[4]. A term coined by Kate Raworth to get across the idea of an economy that provides a necessary social foundation for human wellbeing, while respecting the natural constraints of the planet. The ‘doughnut’ is the sweet spot between the two goals. And is illustrated in the diagram below. The diagram also shows the degree to which the social foundation is currently being missed, while the environmental constraints are being overshot.

If the overall objective is sustainable wellbeing, then a focus on wider social and environmental measures may give a better indication of how well the economy is contributing to this. This may then allow you to look at how different approaches to organising an economy work in terms of achieving desired ends.

This is the approach the Social Progress Imperative[5] have taken in developing their index of social progress. They don’t use any purely economic measures in constructing the index. Instead they look at 51 indicators across three broad categories (see below): basic human needs, the foundations of wellbeing (including environmental quality), and opportunity.

In these approaches increasing productivity remains at the heart of development, but more attention is focussed on overall resource productivity, alongside the distribution of wealth and income within and between countries resulting from increased productivity.

If we do move towards a rounder, more sustainable, wellbeing economy, what might be some of its characteristics? They could include:

·         A greater focus on the prevention of social and environmental problems to improve outcomes and reduce expenditure and less on more costly amelioration

·         A more stable financial system geared to realising economic potential to generate social returns

·         Investment and innovation focussed on a zero carbon transformation and renewable resources

·         Carbon costs and other positive and negative externalities being internalised to influence incentives for consumers and producers

·         More local production/sub-contracting and greater decentralisation of decisions – to provide more resilience in a crisis and give a greater sense of agency

·         Widen ownership and control of assets to spread returns and give more people a stake in success

·         A strong partnership between the private, public and third sectors to stimulate investment, address externalities and ensure a fairer distribution of opportunities and outcomes

One consequence of the experience of coping with Covid-19 might also be greater global cooperation to tackle other cross border issues such as the climate emergency. The framework for this cooperating already exists in the form of the UN’s Agenda 2030 and associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)[7], summarised in the graphic below. These goals, agreed in 2015, already influence policy and practice around the world, for example they underpin Scotland’s National Performance Framework[7].

A key challenge in pursuing the goals is to understand the way in which complex socio-economic systems interact, generating both positive synergies and negative trade-offs. The operation and design of supply chains (or their rounder equivalents) could play an important role in this, bringing together many of the goals. For example:

·         The use of natural resources and the disposal of waste (SDGs 12, 14, 15)

·         The skills and conditions of workers throughout the chain (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10)

·         Innovation, production and distribution processes (SDGs 7, 9, 12, 13)

·         Reuse and recycling of products  (SDGs 11, 13, 14, 15)

·         Trading arrangements (SDGs 16, 17)

·         Supply chain resilience (SDGs 3, 9)

Developing the economy post Covid is going be extremely challenging in the short term as places struggle to rebuild and recover, however, the interruption caused by the pandemic also offers a longer term opportunity to reimagine and restructure a rounder, more sustainable and inclusive economy, with wellbeing at its core.

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[1] https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2020/04/coronavirus-economics-stockpiling-global-supply-chain

[2] https://www.zerowastescotland.org.uk/circular-economy

[3] The Circular Economy Handbook - Realizing the Circular Advantage, Peter Lacy et al (2020)

[4] https://www.kateraworth.com/doughnut/

[5] https://www.socialprogress.org

[6] https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org

[7] https://nationalperformance.gov.scot

Blog: "COVID-19: Finding common cause in a crisis" - Charlie Woods, SUII

Charlie Woods is EDAS's Policy and Practice
sub-group Chair and Director of the
Scottish Universities Insight Institute

It is something of an understatement to say that the Covid-19 pandemic is shaking everything up and 

will have an ongoing legacy. This is nothing new, the history of pandemics suggest they can have a significant and long lasting impact on society and the economy[1].

The immediate and longer term consequences of the current pandemic are, and are likely to be, largely negative. However, there are also some positive stories emerging from the upheaval and suffering. A recent article[2] highlights some of the many initiatives around the world where communities and groups are coming together to organize themselves and offer support and help to others. It will be interesting to see how many seeds are planted during the crisis that will continue to bear fruit once it has passed.

Many of these projects are a form of ‘commons’ - neither state or market led - a way of organization that waned with the enclosure of land and the development of more private property (and state regulated) based economic systems.

However, commons haven’t disappeared completely, there are still some notable and longstanding examples, such as cattle herders in the Alps, along with some newer models of commons based peer production, such as that involved in Linux open source software, Wikipedia or the Firefox browser.

Alongside commons based models these has been increasing attention recently on other approaches, which can operate in market based economies, yet broaden stakeholder involvement. These include cooperatives, employee ownership, community wealth building and ‘B-corps’. The wider inclusiveness of these types of organisations give more people a stake in the organisation and an incentive to be innovative and improve performance.

A commons approach is a shared endeavor to collectively develop, organize and manage resources. The often cited risk with this approach is that it results in what is known as the ‘tragedy of the commons’^[3]. Where this occurs insufficient or ineffective communication and management results in overuse and degradation of resources. This results from individual short term advantage, or fear of loss overwhelming the wider collective (and eventually individual) good in a version of the ‘prisoners dilemma’[4].

Private property rights are seen as one answer to this ‘tragedy’. The argument being that an owner will look after their own property, and they will have an incentive to invest, innovate and improve. The risk with this approach is that private owners might well ignore ‘externalities’ that fall onto the wider society, such as the costs of pollution and might focus on short term returns at the expense of stewardship for future generations. A further consequence of this approach is that returns on investment tend to become more concentrated among property owners with society becoming more unequal and less ‘inclusive’.

Perhaps ‘externalities’ were seen as less of an issue when the earth’s resources and capacity for waste appeared to be inexhaustible – we now know this is very far from the case as current developed country ways of living consume and despoil the resources of multiple planets.

‘Tragedies and externalities’ are both types of collective action problems, where social and private interests are not aligned. Something similar is observed in the natural world, when an animal seeking relative advantage can undermine the common good.^[5] However, humans have the ability to communicate, reason and plan to overcome these types of problems. Humankind’s capacity to cooperate is critical to solving these problems. Although history is littered with examples of societies that have been unable to sustain themselves as a result of a failure to do this.^[6]  

The work of Nobel Prize winning economist Elinor Ostrom^[7] offers guidance for managing a commons. From widespread study of different commons, she identified a number of key features, including, clear communication, user defined rules, graduated sanctions where rules are broken and low cost dispute resolution processes.

In market based economies democratically agreed laws, regulation and taxes, alongside more informal social norms, are all used to address externalities and mediate the interests of the individual and society.

The relationship between the private and the social is a fine balance - the current ‘liberate’ protests in the US are a case in point. The balance varies between cultures, driven by history, environment and philosophy. This is highlighted by Julian Baggini in his review of different world philosophies^[8] - from the eastern emphasis on the harmony of society to the western focus on individual liberty. He concluded that: “Values of autonomy, harmony, community and individuality all have a legitimacy but there is no way to live that allows us to maximise all of them. There is more than one way for humans to flourish and trade-offs are inevitable.”

Managing these trade-offs requires cooperation and understanding, which is hard enough where there are shared values. At a global level it’s much harder, yet it is even more critical as we wrestle with issues like Covid-19 and the climate emergency. Although written almost 400 years ago ‘no man is an island’ has never seemed more apt, with perhaps the amendment of one word!

When multi-national co-operation works, as with the Montreal Accord on CFCs, it can be transformative. However, achievements of this scale are few and far between and hard to pull off, particularly when short term domestic political pressures bear down on decision makers.

What will be the impact of the Covid pandemic on cooperation to solve collective problems? A paper written last year Alex Evans[9] explored what’s needed to rebuild political common ground. This suggests it could go one of two ways. On the one hand there is the danger that it could exacerbate polarisation and division within and between countries, which have been fueled by rising inequality, a breakdown in trust etc. On the other he offers the hope that: “there is also ample historical precedent to show that periods of crisis and turbulence can provide highly fertile ground for non zero-sum cooperation, normative renewal, and widely shared feelings of common identity and common purpose.”

The pandemic has left many of us feeling somewhat disorientated. Acknowledging that we are at a crossroads and learning the lessons from positive examples of common endeavor might be the first steps in charting a way forward that turns hope into reality.

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[1] A recent study for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which looked at the aftermath of fifteen pandemics since the 14^th century, concluded that the macroeconomic impacts persisted for around 40 years. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2020-09.pdf

European Parliament Briefing on the economic impact of pandemics https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/646195/EPRS_BRI(2020)646195_EN.pdf

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/virus-neighbours-covid-19

^[3] Garrett Hardin - The Tragedy of the Commons (1968) http://www.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243.full

[4]  ‘a game … that shows why two completely rational individuals might not cooperate, even if it appears that it is in their best interests to do so.’  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

^[5] A good example of this is the male peacock’s tail, which helps each individual attract a mate and thus ensures the passing on of his genes, but makes the species as a whole more vulnerable to predators. Robert Frank - The Darwin Economy (2011) Princeton University Press.

^[6] Jared Diamond - Collapse (2005) Penguin

^[7] Elinor Ostrom - Governing The Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (1990) Cambridge University Press.

[8] “How the world thinks” – Julian Baggini (2018)

[9] https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/alex_evans_rebuilding_common_ground_final.pdf

Blog: "COVID-19: What's really important?" - Charlie Woods, SUII

Charlie Woods is EDAS's Policy and Practice
sub-group Chair and Director of the
Scottish Universities Insight Institute

What, if any, will be the impact of Covid-19 on our behaviour in the medium to long term, and what implications will this have for the functioning of the economy? As Mark Carney put it in a recent Economist article [1]:

Recruitment: Vacant & Derelict Land Project Manager at DTAS

Vacant & Derelict Land Project Manager

£35k + pension (11.5% employer contribution)

This exciting 2 year post is the result of a partnership between the Scottish Land Commission and the Development Trusts Association Scotland which seeks to address the challenging problem of vacant and derelict land. In particular the post will focus on the smaller derelict sites, which often cause the most harm to local communities, but can equally be well suited to community-led regeneration. Working alongside development trusts or other community organisations, the post-holder will develop practical and innovative approaches to bringing different types of these small and persistently problematic sites back into productive use, in a way that could support and scale-up community led regeneration across Scotland.

The post-holder will be based within DTAS, the national membership organisation for development trusts, and will require to have good experience of delivering community-led regeneration. This is a unique post which will also require good negotiating and communication skills, knowledge of financing projects of this nature, a creative and solutions-focussed approach and the ability to capture and report on the learning from the project.

For more information and how to apply please email aileen@dtascot.org.uk

The closing date for applications is Friday 24th April at 5pm.


DTA Scotland is committed to a policy of equality & diversity.
Scottish Charitable Incorporated Organisation (SCIO) No: SC034231
We take the collection and use of your data seriously, please see link to the DTAS Recruitment Privacy Statement


Funded by the Scottish Land Commission: 

Update: Chair Liz McEntee's Statement and EDAS COVID-19 response

Dear colleague, I hope this email finds you well as you navigate the uncertainties and responses to the current COVID-19 pandemic.  Last week, I commenced my first term as the new Chair of EDAS (the Economic Development Association Scotland). I take on this role at a time like no other. When I was appointed in December, I could not have imagined the changes that would take place to our working lives and personal freedoms in just a few short months, let alone the terrible human cost this pandemic is bringing.  The current COVID-19 crisis is a game changer. While UK and Scottish Government responses rightly prioritise public health measures to save lives, this comes at huge cost to our economy. Throughout this unprecedented time, I know that our role in EDAS is to build an understanding of what this means for our economy and of the best way those working in economic development can respond.  In this regard, I am thankful to be chairing a highly skilled board that reflects the diverse interests of the economic development community in Scotland, to Robert Pollock, who has led EDAS so ably throughout the last five years and to the excellent EDAS staff who support and enable all we do.  Our priority in the weeks and months ahead will be to listen to our members, sharing their views and ideas, so we can make the case for a comprehensive economic recovery plan when the time comes – one that focuses on wellbeing and equality as well as growth as we continue to lead debate and dialogue about creating an inclusive economy . In all of this, we will look to new ways to engage, safely, with you as we shape this important agenda and work to promote economic prosperity in every sense for Scotland’s people, businesses and communities in the years to come.    EDAS has prepared the statement below on the new work we will be considering during this time, from looking right now at our resilience and ability to best support the economic development community; to building an understanding of how COVID-19 and its impact here and at global level will affect our economy; and to what will be needed in terms of recovery and restructuring going forward when the world has experienced such a seismic shift. As a Board, we will be meeting virtually every two to six weeks during this time to assess how we can support our members going forward, whilst creating spaces to engage with you in shaping what we do. I very much look forward to working with you during this unprecedented time in all of our lives. I am sure that what we are facing now will forge new relationships and ways of working that will stand us in good stead as we move through the crisis and beyond. It is certainly a reminder of our vulnerability, strength and humanity.   Best wishes, Liz McEntee  Chair, EDAS

EDAS COVID-19 Statement: April 2020  As with all organisations we are trying to understand the implications of the pandemic for our work. We recognise that members will be under intense pressure to cope with the economic development consequences of the current emergency and we will try to organise our contribution accordingly. We currently see three main phases which we will have to respond to, although the nature and timing of these will be very much dependent on how the pandemic and the response of governments evolves: Resilience - what can be done to help the survival of the people and business that form the foundation of the economy – e.g. how can we assist members to share the lessons of experience? (April-June months) Recovery - how can we begin to rebuild as the immediate crisis eases – e.g. what are the lessons from elsewhere? (July-December) Restructure – how can we understand the longer-term opportunities and threats that will emerge from the enormous shock the economy has faced? This may require some significant re-imagining of economic objectives and assets. (September onwards). As Graeme Roy of the Fraser of Allander Institute recently wrote:  “The economy that will emerge from this may look quite different and not just because many businesses may struggle to survive. How individual sectors and businesses will adapt over the next few months – from retail through to universities – may change behaviours forever. The government’s response to the public health crisis is arguably the first step on a new social partnership between the State and business, perhaps unlocking a much broader conversation about inequalities and sharing the proceeds of growth more evenly across society.” We will endeavour to help members keep on top of trends that begin to emerge as the economy undergoes a significant reset. We think our current policy themes will continue to have relevance in this environment, although we will keep them under review. The precise content and nature of our events programme will be adapted as circumstances develop.  With over 3,000 members and a positive approach to collaborative working, we encourage your involvement and welcome your input. About Liz McEntee Liz McEntee is a Director with Glasgow Council for the Voluntary Sector (GCVS), the main development support agency for the third sector in the city. During her extensive career, she has worked for a range of national and local charities and a major UK social enterprise as well as in further education and local authority economic development.   She brings a wealth of knowledge about people and place-based regeneration as well as expertise in good governance through her work with SCVO, GCVS, and extensive board experience. She is a passionate advocate for economic and social justice in Scotland and valued for her authentic leadership style, strategic thinking, interpersonal skills and collaborative approach to partnership working.  She holds an MSc (Distinction) in Local Economic Development from the University of Glasgow and is a Fellow of the RSA. About EDAS EDAS provides opportunities for: Continuing professional development, through training, events and briefings covering policy and research updates and lessons from practice and other places, Networking with members and other stakeholders in economic development in the public, private and third sectors, Influencing the development of policy from the perspective of having to put it into practice. Membership of EDAS is an investment which will generate returns thorough increased effectiveness and improved outcomes, alongside greater efficiency and higher productivity.

Blog: "COVID-19: There are more questions than answers" - Charlie Woods, SUII

"There are more questions than answers"

Charlie Woods is EDAS's Policy and Practice
sub-group Chair and Director of the
Scottish Universities Insight Institute

So sang Johnny Nash in the early seventies. It seems particularly apt as we think about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. As we scrabble about to make sense of what’s happening, the final line of the chorus also seems to be particularly appropriate - “And the more I find out the less I know”. Hopefully, things will become clearer, but we are only in the foothills of understanding at the moment.

It certainly feels like things will be different. It may well be that some longer-lasting improvements occur, for example, as people learn from what worked well from cooperating and breaking down silos to tackle the crisis – this was certainly the experience of Finland and Ireland in previous emergencies. But we must also recognise there might possibly be some backward moves as people and countries become more defensive and frightened and seek to isolate themselves further.

In the latest Fraser of Allander Commentary, published in late March 2020, Graeme Roy alluded to some of the possibilities:

“The economy that will emerge from this will look quite different and not just because many businesses may struggle to survive. How individual sectors and businesses will adapt over the next few months – from retail through to universities – will change behaviours forever. The government’s response to the public health crisis is arguably the first step on a new social partnership between the State and business, perhaps unlocking a much broader conversation about inequalities and sharing the proceeds of growth more evenly across society.”

Writing in the Guardian around the same time, William Davis was clear on breadth of the pandemic’s impact globally, and the potential long term importance of the current crisis, if not the outcome:

“It will take years or decades for the significance of 2020 to be fully understood. But we can be sure that, as an authentically global crisis, it is also a global turning point. There is a great deal of emotional, physical and financial pain in the immediate future. But a crisis of this scale will never be truly resolved until many of the fundamentals of our social and economic life have been remade.”

John Kay and Mervyn King’s new book ‘Radical Uncertainty’ highlights the important distinction to be made between risk and uncertainty. Risk is something where the parameters of possible outcomes are reasonably well understood and meaningful probabilities can be calculated to aid decision making. Uncertainty, on the other hand, is full of unknowns and any attempt to apply probability analysis is liable to suffer a version of ‘rubbish in, rubbish out’. Decision making in times of uncertainty needs to be concerned with trying to better understand underlying trends, narratives and possible scenarios - as they put it, by asking ‘what’s going on?’ and using this as a guide to decision making. Not easy when many traditional storylines don’t seem to apply any more.

What are some of the questions that might guide our understanding of what’s going on, or could go on, particularly from the perspective of the economic system? Here is a starter for ten as a contribution to the process of beginning to get our heads around a new narrative:

1. What will be some of the longer term changes in consumer behaviour - how will priorities change as people get a fresh insight into what’s really important for wellbeing?
2. How will people feel about travelling in future?
3. How will our understanding of other global emergencies and actions to tackle them evolve?
4. What will be the impact on the growth of online retail and what are the implications for high streets?
5. What will be the spatial and infrastructure implications?
6. How will agglomeration economies be effected?
7. What will be the impact on the design of supply chains?
8. How will political priorities change in relation to the market’s role in the wellbeing of wider society
9. How will the relationship within and between the public, private and third sectors evolve?
10. What have we learned about how our financial system operates and what are the constraints on investment and innovation?

So, many more questions than answers and this is just the tip of the iceberg. It’s only by beginning to frame the questions we might begin to glean some understanding. As Einstein is quoted as saying ‘the important thing is to not stop questioning’.

An online consultation to inform the UK Global Tariff

The UK Government has launched a public consultation on the UK Global Tariff policy. The Government encourages everyone with an interest to take part and provide their views by 5 March 2020.


The consultation offers you the opportunity to provide:

• Views on a potential series of amendments to the Common External Tariff to create a bespoke UK tariff- specifically: simplifying and tailoring the UK Global Tariff policy, removing tariffs on goods imported by UK businesses to manufacture other goods, and where the UK has zero or limited domestic production.

• Specific feedback on specific products or commodity codes of importance to you, including on the corresponding tariff rate.

• Information on your interactions with Most Favoured Nation tariffs and the importance of tariffs to sectors that are important to you.

Respond online here

Read the full consultation description.