Non Executive Director Vacancies with EDAS - Applications Deadline 5th October 2020

EDAS is the country's foremost membership-driven association for all organisations and individuals with an interest or role in Scotland's economic development. With an extensive cross sector membership, EDAS supports the development of the knowledge, skills and networks of its near 3,000-strong membership; providing a voice for the economic development profession, and a space in which to learn about and contribute to related policy and good practice. EDAS improves the effectiveness of Scotland’s economic development policy, delivery, and capacity.

We currently have Non-Executive Director vacancies. Although any relevant background will be considered, we are particularly looking for people with expertise or a background in local government or the third sector. We are also aiming to expand the diversity of the Board.

This is an exciting position that requires broad knowledge of Scotland’s economic development community and a commitment to build on the organisation’s success in developing its membership and strategic partnerships, member offerings and CPD, and policy and practice work programme. The Board is seeking directors who will contribute to maintaining the organisation’s track record of sound strategic, operational, and financial management.   

Directorships are unpaid, though expenses will be covered.  The Board meets quarterly and Directors are currently meeting online. Meetings last no more than two hours. There is an expectation that Directors will contribute to one or more sub-groups, which cover Finance and Governance, CPD and Membership, and Policy and Practice.  Directors serve a maximum of four terms of three years and are required to retire and be the subject of re-election every three years.

As a Director of EDAS, you can expect to enjoy making new connections, leading on the development and growth of the organisation, and supporting your professional development.

If you feel that you have the skills and commitment to become a director, please send your CV, detailing two referees, to Elaine Bone 

Closing Date for applications:  Monday, 5^th October 2020. Interviews will be held at the end of October and nominations taken to the current Board of Directors thereafter.  The first meeting of the new Board will be held in December.

Blog: "Scenario thinking for a ‘new normal’" - Ewan Mearns, Scottish Enterprise

Ewan Mearns, Strategy Team
Leader, Scottish Enterprise
and EDAS Board Member

We hear a lot about the ‘new normal’ these days.  But what exactly does this mean?  And do we all have the same interpretation?

The term implies that we would all recognise what the ‘old normal’ looks like.  You know, the routine, stable economic environment where things were predictable, and we could readily create our five-year plans with a high degree of confidence in the future... 

What the phrase ‘new normal’ is really getting at is the concept of uncertainty.  Change is inevitable but there are periods in life where the pace of change is accelerated and the level of uncertainty skyrockets.  We want to gain reassurance by attempting to put a degree of order around something we can name; to get back to ‘business as usual’.

Scottish Enterprise and the Scottish Government have been delivering a scenario engagement process since late April where scenarios have provided a very useful tool to help generate insights about the uncertainties facing us.  Our scenario engagement process featured in a recent EDAS Covid Conversation. 

This is much more than an abstract exercise.  We’re using the insights to directly feed into the Scottish Government’s medium-term Renew Programme, as well as informing SE’s planning for Scotland’s future economy.  From the vantage point of 2025 the perspectives we gain are quite different to today’s pressing concerns of furloughed jobs, precarious businesses and social distancing.  In planning for the future it’s important we take a future-oriented perspective.  Or as Peter Drucker, the great management theorist put it: “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence itself but to act with yesterday’s logic”.

Covid-19 is at the heart of the critical uncertainties used to frame our four plausible scenarios, both in terms of the relative impact and duration of the pandemic as well as the degree of collaboration within and between countries.  However, the uncertainties that feature in the scenarios cover everything from impacts on inequalities, shifts to new business models, the adoption of new technologies, and geopolitical and technological conflicts between the  US and China.

We designed an online workshop process to explore the potential implications of the scenarios with a wide range of organisations across Scotland.  Over 175 individuals were involved throughout June in exploring 10 policy and delivery themes.  We used the four future scenarios to test the likely robustness of existing policies and plans, and identified ways in which they could be strengthened to accommodate a wider range of uncertainties.

What did we learn?

Without giving too much away – this is a live input to policy thinking – it’s fair to say that across the board, our existing policies and plans were designed for a more benign, less turbulent world.  We need to prepare for a broader range of potential eventualities and build more flexibility and agility into policy making and delivery.  Covid has accelerated a range of structural shifts and laid bare our historic under-investment in infrastructure (particularly digital infrastructure), skills, business innovation and the adoption of new technologies.  Looking ahead, we can anticipate a shifting pattern of global trade relationships and perhaps see business stepping up permanently alongside governments to provide solutions to pressing societal needs.

One of the key issues relates to our collective capacity and capability to anticipate and prepare for future uncertainties.  It’s clear that Covid-19 will be with us for some time yet.  And then there may be similar pandemics – plus the much bigger but much slower-burning crisis that is climate change.

In this context it seems strange to talk about a ‘new normal’.  In fact, following the biggest recession for almost a century, it’s likely to be anything but.  Instead, we need to prepare for a future that remains highly uncertain and abnormal, where resilience is prioritised over efficiency and where agility and leadership are stretched to the limit.  Hold on tight, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

See more from Ewan at our third Covid Conversation on Future Scenario Planning. 

Blog: "Could Covid-19 be a catalyst for reimagining capitalism?" - Charlie Woods, SUII

Charlie Woods is EDAS's Policy and Practice
sub-group Chair and Director of the
Scottish Universities Insight Institute

Free market capitalism is the greatest source of prosperity the world has ever seen, but capitalism is on the verge of destroying the planet and destabilizing society. The good news is we have both the resources and the technology to build a just and sustainable world – and purpose-driven businesses could be the critical catalyst that drives the kinds of global, systemic changes we need to reimagine capitalism in a way that works for everyone.[1] – Rebecca Henderson

One of the most popular courses at Harvard Business School is ‘Reimagining Capitalism’. Course leader, Rebecca Henderson, and author of a recent book[2] on the subject is hopeful that Covid-19 could be a catalyst for reimagining a more inclusive and sustainable form of capitalism. In a recent talk for Ceres[3] she argues that it could provide the jolt needed to the inertia of business as usual, by providing a stark warning that bad things can happen quickly and without much warning, while also reminding us of how much we depend on each other for our security and survival.

She sees business as having a central role to play in stimulating this re-imagination and making it happen. Although she recognises that markets alone can’t achieve the required outcomes, without the right institutions to provide the legal and regulatory frameworks within which markets operate and the necessary investment in public goods.

Action by individual companies can be an important starting point, demonstrating that it is possible to run a business in a way which respects the environment and benefits society at large while still making money. Co-operation between companies across industries will be critical to scale up the impact, for example in setting supply chain standards and isolating free riders. Finance will also have an vital role to play in investing in firms that are acting sustainably, recognising that it will be impossible to diversify away from risks, such as those associated with climate change, in the long run.

Reform will also needed to ensure the right institutional environment. Henderson identifies the importance of a more participatory democracy and the need to reduce the ability of those with deeper pockets to purchase influence. She senses a growing recognition among far sighted businesses of the need for change in the political environment in which business operates.

It’s sometimes hard to be optimistic given the short term stresses and strains of coping with the immediate health and economic impacts of the Covid pandemic. However, the recovery phase does offer opportunities for improvement. There are reasons to be hopeful that purposeful businesses working alongside public and third sector institutions can build a fairer, healthier and more sustainable society - but they can’t be taken for granted.

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[1] https://rebeccahenderson.com/tools-talking-skeptics/

[2] https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/312/312415/reimagining-capitalism/9780241379660.html

[3] https://www.ceres.org/news-center/blog/harvards-rebecca-henderson-our-system-wildly-out-balance-we-must-reimagine

Blog: 'Where now for construction in Scotland?', Chris Kelly - EKOS Ltd

As the construction sector looks set to gradually emerge from the shutdown, this short paper from Chris Kelly, EKOS and EDAS Board member considers some of the issues which may impact on the future of the construction sector in Scotland. 

There are three issues of critical importance that need to be at the forefront of supporting the recovery of the construction sector: innovation, skills, and low carbon and the green economy. 

See full paper here. 

Source: EKOS Consultants 

Common Weal Launches Resilience Economics

Common Weal today launches Resilience Economics, an economic framework for rebuilding Scotland's economy post-virus (read the full report here  or the summary here ). The report is backed by a list of leading economists including Costas Lapavistas, Professor of economics at the School of Oriental and African Studies, Mike Danson Professor of Enterprise Policy at Heriot Watt University,  Giorgos Kallis ecological economist and research Professor at the Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies and Steve Keen, Professor of Economics and Head of the School of Economics, Politics and History at Kingston University.

This report, previewed by Douglas Fraser here, and covered in The National here and here, provides the framework Scotland needs if it is serious about 'building back better'. It is a body of economic theories which come together to form a coherent and comprehensive response to the moment in which we find ourselves – but it is also a repair for the economic failures that have burdened us and a solution to the climate crisis ahead.

It is called 'Resilience Economics' because it's about our ability to face change without the economy toppling over every time. We've had two major crises in just over ten years and our economy has barely coped with either. This can't keep happening, because climate change, resource depletion, the loss of biodiversity and constant pollution (including plastic pollution) mean more shocks to our economy are inevitable. An economy that hurts its own citizens every time change comes isn't the economy we need.

This report is not an action plan; we will start to launch that in the coming weeks. This is an explanation of what we want to achieve. A resilient Scottish economy will produce much more of what we consume. This will drive an entire industry using Scotland's copious natural resources to make high-quality, environmentally-responsible goods and materials. This will stimulate extended supply chain industries which will also be engaged in productive manufacture. These new industry sectors will create new jobs which are more productive and higher skilled and so better paid and more secure. This will be delivered by many more Scottish-owned businesses and will be rapidly stimulated by the the government and its agencies implementing a concerted plan to make it happen.

Essential elements of our life like housing, energy, food and public services will be managed in a different way than the non-essential parts of the economy where regulated free markets are appropriate. As these high-pay industry sectors develop, the low pay sectors which are failing now will be allowed to decline and new and expanding domestic businesses will be supported to 'creatively adapt' to fill the new opportunities and bring better replacement jobs. This will all be underpinned by a commitment to end environmental damage and create much greater job security for workers through a return to industrial democracy.

Because a Resilient Economy must be more productive and useful and replace low-pay and insecure jobs with high-pay, secure ones. It will do much more to prioritise domestic productive business over corporations and help and encourage those businesses to develop themselves as part of a new green economy. Property price inflation will be brought under control so excessive rents and mortgages don’t undermine the economy again. Banking will safe and boring so that a reliable and resilient banking sector can be trusted to provide crucial services.

We will reduce the volume of commercial retail and to transition away from a reliance on the low-pay service sector through a major programme of green reindustrialisation and increasing domestic manufacturing capacity, driven in large part by land-based industries making proper and responsible use of Scotland's copious natural resources. An ‘entrepreneurial state’ will implement a national industrial strategy to substantially increase the proportion of our economy which is domestically owned. Nothing in Scotland’s recovery and its subsequent reindustialisation process would be considered if it does not decrease economic inequality and poverty. We will therefore measure the success of the economy in a much more balanced way and focus on quality of life rather than corporate profits.

This is the start of change. This foundation means we need not fear what is to come, that we should greet it with enthusiasm, confident that Scotland can not only cope but thrive. We just need to leave behind the old economic tools which brought us here and accept that it is time for something new.

So download the report here and give it a read. We hope you're inspired and ready for the big launch. Sign up here to join over 1000 others to become a volunteer for our biggest campaign yer. 

Source: Common Weal

Launch of new Economics Observatory

Today, a new website has been launched – the Economics Observatory (ECO) – that aims to offer insights into the economics of the Covid-19 crisis and the recovery.

The initiative, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), draws on the expertise of economists from over 25 universities and research institutions from across the UK.

You can access the website at the following link – https://coronavirusandtheeconomy.com/

The Fraser of Allander Institute is part of this new exciting initiative. Professor Graeme Roy is a Lead Editor on the project, and Dr Stuart McIntyre a contributing author and editor.

The briefings are written for policy-makers, the media, the public, students and teachers who are interested in the economics of Covid-19 and the implications for households, organisations and public policy.

The website already features some interesting briefings, including:

• The epidemic and the economy: what are the trade-offs? The Covid-19 health emergency has caused economic havoc on a scale not seen in living memory. It is important to understand the interactions between the epidemic and the economy to be able to deal with the difficult trade-offs facing policy-makers and the public.
• When should schools re-open? Countries in Europe and elsewhere have taken very different strategies to getting children back to school after closures. What are the difficulties in making decisions about re-opening? And why is there so much variation among national approaches?
• How will the Covid-19 crisis affect the NHS? The lockdown was implemented largely to ‘save lives and protect the NHS’ amid fears of capacity being overwhelmed. What are likely to be the effects of the crisis on the supply of NHS healthcare, and on demand for healthcare, now and in the future?
• Why is uncertainty so damaging for the economy? The Covid-19 pandemic and policy responses have made life much more uncertain for everyone – individuals, organisations and governments. What impact does all this uncertainty have on the economy and how can policy-makers respond?
• Will Scotland’s economy be hit more or less than the UK as a whole? Just like elsewhere else, Scotland’s economy is facing unprecedented stress from the Covid-19 crisis. How it performs in the months ahead will depend on the policy choices of Scottish ministers – and how these differ, complement or cut across UK-wide policies.
• Which firms and industries have been most affected by lockdown? Almost all UK businesses have been badly affected by the crisis, but some industries have been hit harder than others. Financial market data and surveys of firms themselves provide insights into the scale of the impact on sales, employment, supply chains and business uncertainty.
• What is the likely future role of the state in the UK economy? Economic distress caused by the pandemic, the lockdown and the recession have required a big increase in public spending. How has the crisis affected the size of the state and the effectiveness of government policy?
• How is the crisis affecting inequalities across ethnic groups? There are growing concerns that the UK’s ethnic minorities are suffering disproportionately as a result of the pandemic – in terms of both their higher mortality risks and the worse economic outcomes for some groups.
• What are the lessons for today from running a wartime economy? The world continues to experience episodes that remind us of the profound disruptions of twentieth-century wartime. But how far does the war analogy stretch? Covid-19 has been able to disrupt our economy at a speed that no foreign enemy has ever matched.

How to help with the ECO
If you are an academic interested in contributing to this portal, please get in touch with Fraser of Allander.

Who’s all involved:

• Romesh Vaitilingam is Editor-in-Chief of ECO – and the lead editors are:
• Tim Besley (LSE)
• Jagjit Chadha(National Institute of Economic and Social Research, NIESR)
• Diane Coyle(University of Cambridge)
• Rachel Griffith (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Manchester)
• Michael McMahon (University of Oxford)
• Carol Propper (Imperial College Business School)
• Imran Rasul(University College London)
• Graeme Roy(Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde)
• Sarah Smith (University of Bristol)
• John Turner (Queen’s University Belfast).

For more details, please visit: https://coronavirusandtheeconomy.com/

Source: Fraser of Allander Institute News

Blog: "Inclusive Growth: Finding Lost Einsteins" - Charlie Woods, SUII

Charlie Woods is EDAS's Policy and Practice
sub-group Chair and Director of the
Scottish Universities Insight Institute

“…there are many “lost Einsteins”…especially among women, minorities, and children from low-income families.”[1]

The contribution of more inclusive and equitable development to wellbeing and social justice is well recognised. Perhaps the impact on economic progress is less well appreciated. Indeed it is sometimes assumed there is a trade-off between strong economic performance and equality, sometimes referred to as efficiency v equity[2].

There is an increasing amount of evidence that there need not be a trade-off, indeed there can be considerable synergy between the two. For example, secure, fair employment, where employees having a stake in the business, can help boost innovation and productivity. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson^[3] have argued this type of relationship is at the heart of economic development processes and distinguish between the long term performance of ‘inclusive’ and ‘extractive’ economies.

The IMF have highlighted that inequality can be damaging to economic performance.^[4] A recent book[5] by Heather Boushey of the Washington Centre for Equitable Growth focusses on how inequality ‘obstructs, subverts and distorts’ economic growth. For example, as inequality lowers aggregate demand because the better off have a lower propensity consume and save more than those at the bottom end of the income distribution. Inequality also forces the less well off into debt to finance consumption and can help make the economy more precarious and less resilient.

She also cites a relatively recent study by Alex Bell and others, that adds a further interesting dimension to this issue. By analysing data from patent records in the US and linking them to tax records, they found that children’s chances of becoming inventors are heavily influenced by characteristics at birth, such as their race, gender, and parents’ socioeconomic class. Children from families in the top 1% of income were 10 times more likely to become inventors as those from below-median income families.

Even more tellingly they found that these gaps persisted even among children who performed similarly in maths tests in early childhood - maths ability was found to be highly predictive of innovation success in later life. This suggests that there is likely to be significant innovative potential being stifled through inequality and it led them to coin the term ‘lost Einsteins’ to capture this waste.

It is further evidence of the need to see increased equality not just as an important goal to improve wellbeing and social justice, but as a contributor to more innovation, higher productivity and better economic performance.

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[1] Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation - Alex Bell,  Raj Chetty,  Xavier Jaravel,  Neviana Petkova,  John Van Reenen -The Quarterly Journal of Economics (May 2019)

[2] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/equityefficiencytradeoff.asp

[3] Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson - Why Nations Fail (2012)

[4] https://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/inequality/  

[5] Unbound: How Inequality Constricts Our Economy and What We Can Do About It, Heather Boushey (2019)